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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Sunday night’s Football Acca has us delving deep into the stats to find some value in the final round of matches of this season’s Serie A and La Liga. In Italy, the final relegation places will be decided between either Salernitana, who host Udinese, or Cagliari, who will travel to already-relegated Venezia.
In Spain, Barcelona face a Villarreal side who’ll be desperate to cement their Europa Conference League place but Athletic Bilbao, who travel to Sevilla, could pip them to it should they take the three points and Villareal don’t win. In our final game, both Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid are assured of European football next season and both will want to round off their season by adding another three points to their tally.
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TV: BT Sport 1
Salernitana have dug deep of late in an attempt to stay in the Serie A next season. The hosts are unbeaten over their last seven league clashes and of their last five have won two and drawn three. At home they’ve won two, drawn two and lost one, scoring seven and conceding six with Over 2.5 goals occurring in three of those five.
Udinese have won just one of their last five Serie A encounters, drawing two and losing two. Away from home they’ve been stronger, winning two, drawing two and losing one, scoring 10 and conceding six with Over 2.5 goals occurring in four of those five. With so much on the line here, Salernitana have to go for the win but Udinese’s scoring stats cannot be dismissed. Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 goals is the value pick here.
TV: BT Sport 2
Cagliari must win here and hope Salernitana don’t beat Udinese. Venezia have nothing to play for other than to try and give their long-suffering home fans something to cheer about, although with just three home wins over their 18 Serie A games played at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, very few of even their hardcore fans will be backing them to take the three points.
The hosts have won one of their last five league games, drawing one and losing three while at home they’ve won one and lost four, scoring seven and conceding 14.
The away side have won one, drawn one and lost three over their last five league fixtures and share the same record over their last five on their league excursions, scoring four and conceding 10. If you could bet on two teams to lose you’d be tempted here as they’re both terrible.
However, the motivation of staying up for Cagliari means they have to go for it and with both teams having such leaky defences and Over 2.5 goals landing in four of the host’s last five at home we’re going with that trend continuing.
Barcelona are finishing the season in strong shape, winning three of their last five La Liga games, drawing one and losing one. At the Nou Camp things aren’t as rosey, though, where they’ve won three and lost two in the league, scoring six and conceding four.
Villarreal have had a tough couple of weeks, crashing out of the Champions League to Liverpool after their heroics in the competition this season and results since then haven’t been great. The Yellow Submarine have won two of their last five in La Liga, drawing one and losing two.
Their away league form has seen them winning two and losing three and they need to get something positive here to cling on to seventh should Bilbao win their match against Sevilla.
The Catalans have only kept one clean sheet over their last seven at home so it’s hard not to see the away side scoring and with Villarreal conceding seven over their last five away La Liga games Barca are pretty much assured of getting one. With a European place up for grabs, Villarreal will have to push for a win leaving space at the back for Barcelona to exploit. Both Teams to Score & Overs has to make the list here.
Sevilla have won just one of their last five in the league, drawing four. On home turf they’ve won just one, drawing three and losing one, scoring seven and conceding six. Bilbao have won three of their last five in La Liga, drawing one and losing one but away from home their form has been dire with just one win over their last five on their league jaunts, drawing one and losing three.
Sevilla are one of the toughest teams to beat on home turf and with Over 2.5 goals landing in just four of their last 10 combined home/away La Liga games we’re sticking with the Unders trend here.
We’ll see Real Sociedad in the Europa League next season while Atletico Madrid will be appearing in the Champions League once again. Both though will want to finish their season strongly and add to their tally of points. The hosts have won two, drawn one and lost two while on home ground have won three, drawn one and lost one, scoring five and conceding just one.
Atletico have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five in the league while on their La Liga travels have won two and lost three, scoring just three goals and conceding four.
Both sides are good enough to beat the other but Sociedad have conceded just seven goals at home in the league this campaign and we can’t see many goals here.
Under 2.5 goals has landed in nine of the last 10 combined home/away La Liga games between the pair so we’re getting very good odds here for that occurring again.
Sunday accumulator tips
20:00 Salernitana vs Udinese: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
20:00 Venezia vs Cagliari: Over 2.5 Goals
21:00 Barcelona vs Villarreal: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
21:00 Sevilla vs Athletic Bilbao: Under 2.5 Goals
21:00 Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid: Under 2.5 Goals
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